Samsung Electronics shares rose more than 5% in Seoul on Monday after multiple Korean media outlets reported that the company was set to begin official HBM4 shipments to Nvidia and AMD as early as February, having cleared final qualification tests for both customers. The news reinforced the narrative that Samsung’s semiconductor division is staging a genuine comeback after the HBM3E qualification delays that allowed SK Hynix to capture a dominant market share through 2025. SK Hynix shares also advanced, with the broader KOSPI pushing toward the psychologically significant 5,000 level that Korean brokerages have been targeting as a year-end objective.
Bloomberg separately reported that Samsung is nearing Nvidia’s approval for HBM4, describing it as entering the final qualification phase after supplying initial samples in September. The convergence of multiple sources confirming Samsung’s progress has shifted the market’s assessment of the HBM competitive landscape. Through much of 2025, the consensus was that SK Hynix held an insurmountable lead. The HBM4 qualification reports suggest that Samsung has closed the gap significantly and could, if it ships first, claim an early-mover advantage in the sixth-generation product cycle.
The pricing dynamics for HBM are amplifying the significance of each producer’s position. Samsung and SK Hynix have reportedly raised HBM3E prices by nearly 20% for 2026 deliveries, and TrendForce expects average DRAM prices, inclusive of HBM, to rise 50% to 55% in the first quarter. This pricing power translates directly into margin expansion: Morgan Stanley has projected that Samsung’s memory profits could rise more than 300% in 2026. For investors, the question is no longer whether the AI memory cycle is real, it clearly is, but how the competitive dynamics between Samsung and SK Hynix will distribute the spoils.
The KOSPI’s trajectory toward 5,000 reflects the combined effect of semiconductor earnings momentum and the governance reforms that have revalued the broader market. The index is now trading at valuations that have historically been associated with developed-market technology benchmarks rather than emerging-market indices. Goldman Sachs’ comparison to the Japan trade of 2020 provides a framework for understanding the rerating: just as Japan’s equity market was revalued upward over several years as governance improved and corporate returns increased, Korea’s market is in the early stages of a similar structural shift.
Currency dynamics add another variable. The Korean won has strengthened modestly in early 2026, supported by aggressive government verbal intervention and the National Pension Service’s currency hedging activities. A stronger won creates headwinds for exporters but supports the rerating thesis by increasing the dollar-denominated returns available to foreign investors. The government has also introduced temporary tax breaks to encourage retail investors to shift capital from U.S. equities back to the domestic market, a measure that reflects the structural competition for capital allocation that defines the current environment.
For global equity allocators, the Korean market presents a compelling but increasingly priced investment opportunity. The AI semiconductor cycle provides a multi-year earnings growth trajectory, governance reform is attracting institutional capital, and domestic retail flows provide a liquidity cushion. The risks are concentrated in semiconductor cycle timing, geopolitical exposure through U.S.-China trade policy, and the valuation premium that rapid gains have created. The most defensible positioning favors the specific companies and supply chain nodes where competitive advantages are clearest while maintaining awareness that the pace of index-level gains is unlikely to match the 75% return delivered in 2025.
